Introduction

As security professionals we always are asked how large is the population of an infection. Conficker is no different from any other, and it seems that everyone wants to have some value to use for many different purposes. The press for impact, some vendors for FUD, and others to have a number to compare to other infections. The bottom line is that no one can give an exact number on any infection ever. If anyone ever states exact numbers, they either are controlling it, or are not being completely honest to themselves or others on the means of data collection. We can estimate a number based off of certain traffic types, but we make mistakes as often as anyone else. A lot of the malicious traffic can resemble other legitimate or malicious traffic which of course skews the numbers. On top of simple traffic analysis each threat provides its own unique mechanisms for tracking infection statistics. Each of these methods of course come with their own positives and negatives when discussing accuracy of the data. It is what that in mind that we wanted attempt to draw out some of the pro's and con's of our data collection methodology below.

So, it is with a lot of trepidation that we even show any values for conficker knowing that they will most likely be taken out of context and quoted by many.

Population Numbers

What the following tables show are the daily connections and unique IP's that have been connecting to our tracking systems. Many people equate one IP to one system, but that is not usually the case. If the system is behind a NAT gateway, it would represent dozens or hundreds of systems. If a system is mobile it could be reported several times in a single day under different IP's. And in today's world there are a very large number of mobile users which could inflate the number of connections and unique IP's that are tracked.

What does this really mean? The daily numbers should represent the potential maximum level of the infection, but in previous test cases usually prove to be much less than that maximum. So, take the range of 25% to 75% of the values that we display as the possible infection population and you will be close to the real value. And yes, this is a very large range, and you can see why we do not like to quote any numbers for infection populations, and why you will see very high and low numbers get quoted regularly depending on the purpose of the person making the quote.

One last note: we are publishing these numbers to give a better understanding of what we are tracking. We do not believe in shaming anyone related to these values, and is not our purpose in any way.

Data Details

These tables are updated daily from the tracking systems. They are updated only once a day.

Conficker A+B

These tables are specifically for the A+B infections.

Day        Date        Total HTTP Hits  Unique IP's  Unique ASN's  Unique GEO's
Saturday   2015-07-04      264,824,630      647,139        11,743           219
Friday     2015-07-03      357,817,292      745,569        12,602           218
Thursday   2015-07-02      350,545,344      768,324        12,781           219
Wednesday  2015-07-01      347,054,005      775,060        12,816           219
Tuesday    2015-06-30      349,304,590      780,891        12,831           220
Monday     2015-06-29      369,287,113      769,384        12,697           219
Sunday     2015-06-28      265,628,531      574,141        11,463           220
Saturday   2015-06-27      302,845,919      662,356        11,914           219
Friday     2015-06-26      335,965,903      757,365        12,807           220
Thursday   2015-06-25      333,180,339      778,711        12,835           220
Wednesday  2015-06-24      353,487,318      770,399        12,825           220
Tuesday    2015-06-23      381,978,780      782,880        12,902           221
Monday     2015-06-22      355,189,967      751,872        12,855           219
Sunday     2015-06-21      272,403,746      567,060        11,562           220
Saturday   2015-06-20      298,696,725      641,811        11,935           219
Friday     2015-06-19      337,007,004      743,013        12,783           220
Thursday   2015-06-18      388,600,833      779,507        12,939           221
Wednesday  2015-06-17      391,275,289      789,923        12,971           221
Tuesday    2015-06-16      383,725,064      791,714        12,912           221
Monday     2015-06-15      373,695,197      787,689        12,925           220
Sunday     2015-06-14      297,954,807      573,247        11,564           222
Saturday   2015-06-13      294,651,110      654,583        11,859           220
Friday     2015-06-12      376,810,635      759,262        12,532           221
Thursday   2015-06-11      354,514,061      786,755        12,870           221
Wednesday  2015-06-10      369,609,462      795,135        12,910           221
Tuesday    2015-06-09      407,111,988      792,780        12,947           221
Monday     2015-06-08      343,058,364      773,127        12,901           220
Sunday     2015-06-07      297,659,805      578,887        11,547           219
Saturday   2015-06-06      331,473,197      663,275        11,865           220
Friday     2015-06-05      416,381,772      765,846        12,633           220

This chart shows the rate of IP's being seen over time.

90-Day

180-Day

Year

Conficker C

These tables are specifically for the C infections

Day        Date        Total HTTP Hits  Unique IP's  Unique ASN's  Unique GEO's
Saturday   2015-07-04                                                          
Friday     2015-07-03                                                          
Thursday   2015-07-02                                                          
Wednesday  2015-07-01                                                          
Tuesday    2015-06-30                                                          
Monday     2015-06-29                                                          
Sunday     2015-06-28                                                          
Saturday   2015-06-27                                                          
Friday     2015-06-26                                                          
Thursday   2015-06-25                                                          
Wednesday  2015-06-24                                                          
Tuesday    2015-06-23                                                          
Monday     2015-06-22                                                          
Sunday     2015-06-21                                                          
Saturday   2015-06-20                                                          
Friday     2015-06-19                                                          
Thursday   2015-06-18                                                          
Wednesday  2015-06-17                                                          
Tuesday    2015-06-16                                                          
Monday     2015-06-15                                                          
Sunday     2015-06-14                                                          
Saturday   2015-06-13                                                          
Friday     2015-06-12                                                          
Thursday   2015-06-11                                                          
Wednesday  2015-06-10                                                          
Tuesday    2015-06-09                                                          
Monday     2015-06-08                                                          
Sunday     2015-06-07                                                          
Saturday   2015-06-06                                                          
Friday     2015-06-05                                                          

This chart shows the rate of IP's being seen over time. Because of the great difference between the daily totals and the hourly, we are using two Y-Axis values. The Y-Axis on the left is for the daily totals, while the one on the right s for both the hourly lines.

90-Day

180-Day

Year

Conficker A+B+C

This data set is the aggregate of all the conficker infections for today.

Day        Date        Total HTTP Hits  Unique IP's  Unique ASN's  Unique GEO's
Saturday   2015-07-04      264,824,630      647,139        11,743           219
Friday     2015-07-03      357,817,292      745,569        12,602           218
Thursday   2015-07-02      350,545,344      768,324        12,781           219
Wednesday  2015-07-01      347,054,005      775,060        12,816           219
Tuesday    2015-06-30      349,304,590      780,891        12,831           220
Monday     2015-06-29      369,287,113      769,384        12,697           219
Sunday     2015-06-28      265,628,531      574,141        11,463           220
Saturday   2015-06-27      302,845,919      662,356        11,914           219
Friday     2015-06-26      335,965,903      757,365        12,807           220
Thursday   2015-06-25      333,180,339      778,711        12,835           220
Wednesday  2015-06-24      353,487,318      770,399        12,825           220
Tuesday    2015-06-23      381,978,780      782,880        12,902           221
Monday     2015-06-22      355,189,967      751,872        12,855           219
Sunday     2015-06-21      272,403,746      567,060        11,562           220
Saturday   2015-06-20      298,696,725      641,811        11,935           219
Friday     2015-06-19      337,007,004      743,013        12,783           220
Thursday   2015-06-18      388,600,833      779,507        12,939           221
Wednesday  2015-06-17      391,275,289      789,923        12,971           221
Tuesday    2015-06-16      383,725,064      791,714        12,912           221
Monday     2015-06-15      373,695,197      787,689        12,925           220
Sunday     2015-06-14      297,954,807      573,247        11,564           222
Saturday   2015-06-13      294,651,110      654,583        11,859           220
Friday     2015-06-12      376,810,635      759,262        12,532           221
Thursday   2015-06-11      354,514,061      786,755        12,870           221
Wednesday  2015-06-10      369,609,462      795,135        12,910           221
Tuesday    2015-06-09      407,111,988      792,780        12,947           221
Monday     2015-06-08      343,058,364      773,127        12,901           220
Sunday     2015-06-07      297,659,805      578,887        11,547           219
Saturday   2015-06-06      331,473,197      663,275        11,865           220
Friday     2015-06-05      416,381,772      765,846        12,633           220

90-Day

180-Day

Year

ASN Statistics

These charts represent how many ASN's are effected during the period of the graph.

90-Day

180-Day

Year

Country Statistics

These charts represent how many countries are effected during the period of the graph.

90-Day

180-Day

Year

HTTP Hit Statistics

These charts show how many daily hits from Conficker systems that we are seeing during the period of the graphs. While this is not really representative of an infection population, it does show the level of work that the Conficker Working Group must do daily in dealing with the level of events from Conficker.

90-Day

180-Day

Year