Introduction

As security professionals we always are asked how large is the population of an infection. Conficker is no different from any other, and it seems that everyone wants to have some value to use for many different purposes. The press for impact, some vendors for FUD, and others to have a number to compare to other infections. The bottom line is that no one can give an exact number on any infection ever. If anyone ever states exact numbers, they either are controlling it, or are not being completely honest to themselves or others on the means of data collection. We can estimate a number based off of certain traffic types, but we make mistakes as often as anyone else. A lot of the malicious traffic can resemble other legitimate or malicious traffic which of course skews the numbers. On top of simple traffic analysis each threat provides its own unique mechanisms for tracking infection statistics. Each of these methods of course come with their own positives and negatives when discussing accuracy of the data. It is what that in mind that we wanted attempt to draw out some of the pro's and con's of our data collection methodology below.

So, it is with a lot of trepidation that we even show any values for conficker knowing that they will most likely be taken out of context and quoted by many.

Population Numbers

What the following tables show are the daily connections and unique IP's that have been connecting to our tracking systems. Many people equate one IP to one system, but that is not usually the case. If the system is behind a NAT gateway, it would represent dozens or hundreds of systems. If a system is mobile it could be reported several times in a single day under different IP's. And in today's world there are a very large number of mobile users which could inflate the number of connections and unique IP's that are tracked.

What does this really mean? The daily numbers should represent the potential maximum level of the infection, but in previous test cases usually prove to be much less than that maximum. So, take the range of 25% to 75% of the values that we display as the possible infection population and you will be close to the real value. And yes, this is a very large range, and you can see why we do not like to quote any numbers for infection populations, and why you will see very high and low numbers get quoted regularly depending on the purpose of the person making the quote.

One last note: we are publishing these numbers to give a better understanding of what we are tracking. We do not believe in shaming anyone related to these values, and is not our purpose in any way.

Data Details

These tables are updated daily from the tracking systems. They are updated only once a day.

Conficker A+B

These tables are specifically for the A+B infections.

Day        Date        Total HTTP Hits  Unique IP's  Unique ASN's  Unique GEO's
Wednesday  2015-03-04      405,485,587      855,244        13,249           220
Tuesday    2015-03-03      428,618,356      862,666        13,235           220
Monday     2015-03-02      373,676,339      849,453        13,226           222
Sunday     2015-03-01      341,497,427      646,001        11,924           222
Saturday   2015-02-28      365,220,572      739,094        12,271           220
Friday     2015-02-27      427,210,348      822,641        13,150           221
Thursday   2015-02-26      352,477,946      834,344        13,265           221
Wednesday  2015-02-25      374,759,848      827,563        13,275           221
Tuesday    2015-02-24      335,895,913      806,159        13,241           222
Monday     2015-02-23      376,977,645      776,553        12,929           221
Sunday     2015-02-22      268,727,424      604,726        11,873           222
Saturday   2015-02-21      345,956,972      677,470        12,259           220
Friday     2015-02-20      345,033,327      736,806        13,030           223
Thursday   2015-02-19      370,124,181      744,090        13,050           223
Wednesday  2015-02-18      345,703,904      763,102        13,118           222
Tuesday    2015-02-17      306,445,987      753,413        12,937           223
Monday     2015-02-16      347,684,730      778,466        13,016           222
Sunday     2015-02-15      300,406,565      640,431        11,951           221
Saturday   2015-02-14      317,390,036      719,517        12,195           221
Friday     2015-02-13      412,617,999      830,517        13,149           222
Thursday   2015-02-12      280,446,475      708,664        12,667           222
Wednesday  2015-02-11      374,060,023      859,693        13,263           223
Tuesday    2015-02-10      185,415,312      571,341        11,985           222
Sunday     2015-02-08              227          105            42            25
Friday     2015-02-06              603          156            47            24
Thursday   2015-02-05              559          156            56            25
Wednesday  2015-02-04      335,565,049      806,323        12,990           220
Tuesday    2015-02-03      424,571,382      876,787        13,316           223
Monday     2015-02-02      365,473,366      871,537        13,228           224
Sunday     2015-02-01      307,554,509      667,354        11,955           222

This chart shows the rate of IP's being seen over time.

90-Day

180-Day

Year

Conficker C

These tables are specifically for the C infections

Day        Date        Total HTTP Hits  Unique IP's  Unique ASN's  Unique GEO's
Wednesday  2015-03-04                                                          
Tuesday    2015-03-03                                                          
Monday     2015-03-02                                                          
Sunday     2015-03-01                                                          
Saturday   2015-02-28                                                          
Friday     2015-02-27                                                          
Thursday   2015-02-26                                                          
Wednesday  2015-02-25                                                          
Tuesday    2015-02-24                                                          
Monday     2015-02-23                                                          
Sunday     2015-02-22                                                          
Saturday   2015-02-21                                                          
Friday     2015-02-20                                                          
Thursday   2015-02-19                                                          
Wednesday  2015-02-18                                                          
Tuesday    2015-02-17                                                          
Monday     2015-02-16                                                          
Sunday     2015-02-15                                                          
Saturday   2015-02-14                                                          
Friday     2015-02-13                                                          
Thursday   2015-02-12                                                          
Wednesday  2015-02-11                                                          
Tuesday    2015-02-10                                                          
Sunday     2015-02-08                                                          
Friday     2015-02-06                                                          
Thursday   2015-02-05                                                          
Wednesday  2015-02-04                                                          
Tuesday    2015-02-03                                                          
Monday     2015-02-02                                                          
Sunday     2015-02-01                                                          

This chart shows the rate of IP's being seen over time. Because of the great difference between the daily totals and the hourly, we are using two Y-Axis values. The Y-Axis on the left is for the daily totals, while the one on the right s for both the hourly lines.

90-Day

180-Day

Year

Conficker A+B+C

This data set is the aggregate of all the conficker infections for today.

Day        Date        Total HTTP Hits  Unique IP's  Unique ASN's  Unique GEO's
Wednesday  2015-03-04      405,485,587      855,244        13,249           220
Tuesday    2015-03-03      428,618,356      862,666        13,235           220
Monday     2015-03-02      373,676,339      849,453        13,226           222
Sunday     2015-03-01      341,497,427      646,001        11,924           222
Saturday   2015-02-28      365,220,572      739,094        12,271           220
Friday     2015-02-27      427,210,348      822,641        13,150           221
Thursday   2015-02-26      352,477,946      834,344        13,265           221
Wednesday  2015-02-25      374,759,848      827,563        13,275           221
Tuesday    2015-02-24      335,895,913      806,159        13,241           222
Monday     2015-02-23      376,977,645      776,553        12,929           221
Sunday     2015-02-22      268,727,424      604,726        11,873           222
Saturday   2015-02-21      345,956,972      677,470        12,259           220
Friday     2015-02-20      345,033,327      736,806        13,030           223
Thursday   2015-02-19      370,124,181      744,090        13,050           223
Wednesday  2015-02-18      345,703,904      763,102        13,118           222
Tuesday    2015-02-17      306,445,987      753,413        12,937           223
Monday     2015-02-16      347,684,730      778,466        13,016           222
Sunday     2015-02-15      300,406,565      640,431        11,951           221
Saturday   2015-02-14      317,390,036      719,517        12,195           221
Friday     2015-02-13      412,617,999      830,517        13,149           222
Thursday   2015-02-12      280,446,475      708,664        12,667           222
Wednesday  2015-02-11      374,060,023      859,693        13,263           223
Tuesday    2015-02-10      185,415,312      571,341        11,985           222
Sunday     2015-02-08              227          105            42            25
Friday     2015-02-06              603          156            47            24
Thursday   2015-02-05              559          156            56            25
Wednesday  2015-02-04      335,565,049      806,323        12,990           220
Tuesday    2015-02-03      424,571,382      876,787        13,316           223
Monday     2015-02-02      365,473,366      871,537        13,228           224
Sunday     2015-02-01      307,554,509      667,354        11,955           222

90-Day

180-Day

Year

ASN Statistics

These charts represent how many ASN's are effected during the period of the graph.

90-Day

180-Day

Year

Country Statistics

These charts represent how many countries are effected during the period of the graph.

90-Day

180-Day

Year

HTTP Hit Statistics

These charts show how many daily hits from Conficker systems that we are seeing during the period of the graphs. While this is not really representative of an infection population, it does show the level of work that the Conficker Working Group must do daily in dealing with the level of events from Conficker.

90-Day

180-Day

Year