Introduction

As security professionals we always are asked how large is the population of an infection. Conficker is no different from any other, and it seems that everyone wants to have some value to use for many different purposes. The press for impact, some vendors for FUD, and others to have a number to compare to other infections. The bottom line is that no one can give an exact number on any infection ever. If anyone ever states exact numbers, they either are controlling it, or are not being completely honest to themselves or others on the means of data collection. We can estimate a number based off of certain traffic types, but we make mistakes as often as anyone else. A lot of the malicious traffic can resemble other legitimate or malicious traffic which of course skews the numbers. On top of simple traffic analysis each threat provides its own unique mechanisms for tracking infection statistics. Each of these methods of course come with their own positives and negatives when discussing accuracy of the data. It is what that in mind that we wanted attempt to draw out some of the pro's and con's of our data collection methodology below.

So, it is with a lot of trepidation that we even show any values for conficker knowing that they will most likely be taken out of context and quoted by many.

Population Numbers

What the following tables show are the daily connections and unique IP's that have been connecting to our tracking systems. Many people equate one IP to one system, but that is not usually the case. If the system is behind a NAT gateway, it would represent dozens or hundreds of systems. If a system is mobile it could be reported several times in a single day under different IP's. And in today's world there are a very large number of mobile users which could inflate the number of connections and unique IP's that are tracked.

What does this really mean? The daily numbers should represent the potential maximum level of the infection, but in previous test cases usually prove to be much less than that maximum. So, take the range of 25% to 75% of the values that we display as the possible infection population and you will be close to the real value. And yes, this is a very large range, and you can see why we do not like to quote any numbers for infection populations, and why you will see very high and low numbers get quoted regularly depending on the purpose of the person making the quote.

One last note: we are publishing these numbers to give a better understanding of what we are tracking. We do not believe in shaming anyone related to these values, and is not our purpose in any way.

Data Details

These tables are updated daily from the tracking systems. They are updated only once a day.

Conficker A+B

These tables are specifically for the A+B infections.

Day        Date        Total HTTP Hits  Unique IP's  Unique ASN's  Unique GEO's
Thursday   2014-10-23      442,071,720      968,906        13,652           225
Wednesday  2014-10-22      449,933,675      991,529        13,661           224
Tuesday    2014-10-21      417,101,162    1,006,240        13,733           225
Monday     2014-10-20      435,758,029    1,002,686        13,697           225
Sunday     2014-10-19      352,037,162      762,004        12,479           222
Saturday   2014-10-18      372,904,352      872,355        12,854           224
Friday     2014-10-17      449,919,338      990,883        13,682           227
Thursday   2014-10-16      460,786,809    1,014,200        13,775           224
Wednesday  2014-10-15      403,033,849    1,011,044        13,815           222
Tuesday    2014-10-14      418,613,044    1,014,031        13,777           222
Monday     2014-10-13      409,720,387      991,368        13,683           221
Sunday     2014-10-12      354,215,919      758,446        12,447           221
Saturday   2014-10-11      338,392,643      873,813        12,813           220
Friday     2014-10-10      441,220,954      981,608        13,668           221
Wednesday  2014-10-08      442,036,564    1,004,857        13,735           222
Tuesday    2014-10-07      451,692,579      964,383        13,684           221
Monday     2014-10-06      412,294,591      929,383        13,602           223
Sunday     2014-10-05      326,334,098      732,456        12,411           221
Saturday   2014-10-04      367,895,034      823,581        12,705           221
Friday     2014-10-03      414,109,108      901,896        13,560           222
Thursday   2014-10-02      390,976,131      937,692        13,717           222
Wednesday  2014-10-01      425,497,951      975,143        13,769           222
Tuesday    2014-09-30      463,660,700    1,026,417        13,782           223
Monday     2014-09-29      395,954,691    1,023,389        13,766           223
Sunday     2014-09-28      331,605,440      806,759        12,572           223
Saturday   2014-09-27      370,000,677      892,104        12,866           221
Friday     2014-09-26      414,922,541    1,011,914        13,656           222
Thursday   2014-09-25      497,214,237    1,045,960        13,787           221
Wednesday  2014-09-24      438,804,963    1,047,316        13,833           222
Tuesday    2014-09-23      444,718,416    1,047,928        13,819           222

This chart shows the rate of IP's being seen over time.

90-Day

180-Day

Year

Conficker C

These tables are specifically for the C infections

Day        Date        Total HTTP Hits  Unique IP's  Unique ASN's  Unique GEO's
Thursday   2014-10-23                                                          
Wednesday  2014-10-22                                                          
Tuesday    2014-10-21                                                          
Monday     2014-10-20                                                          
Sunday     2014-10-19                                                          
Saturday   2014-10-18                                                          
Friday     2014-10-17                                                          
Thursday   2014-10-16                                                          
Wednesday  2014-10-15                                                          
Tuesday    2014-10-14                                                          
Monday     2014-10-13                                                          
Sunday     2014-10-12                                                          
Saturday   2014-10-11                                                          
Friday     2014-10-10                                                          
Wednesday  2014-10-08                                                          
Tuesday    2014-10-07                                                          
Monday     2014-10-06                                                          
Sunday     2014-10-05                                                          
Saturday   2014-10-04                                                          
Friday     2014-10-03                                                          
Thursday   2014-10-02                                                          
Wednesday  2014-10-01                                                          
Tuesday    2014-09-30                                                          
Monday     2014-09-29                                                          
Sunday     2014-09-28                                                          
Saturday   2014-09-27                                                          
Friday     2014-09-26                                                          
Thursday   2014-09-25                                                          
Wednesday  2014-09-24                                                          
Tuesday    2014-09-23                                                          

This chart shows the rate of IP's being seen over time. Because of the great difference between the daily totals and the hourly, we are using two Y-Axis values. The Y-Axis on the left is for the daily totals, while the one on the right s for both the hourly lines.

90-Day

180-Day

Year

Conficker A+B+C

This data set is the aggregate of all the conficker infections for today.

Day        Date        Total HTTP Hits  Unique IP's  Unique ASN's  Unique GEO's
Thursday   2014-10-23      442,071,720      968,906        13,652           225
Wednesday  2014-10-22      449,933,675      991,529        13,661           224
Tuesday    2014-10-21      417,101,162    1,006,240        13,733           225
Monday     2014-10-20      435,758,029    1,002,686        13,697           225
Sunday     2014-10-19      352,037,162      762,004        12,479           222
Saturday   2014-10-18      372,904,352      872,355        12,854           224
Friday     2014-10-17      449,919,338      990,883        13,682           227
Thursday   2014-10-16      460,786,809    1,014,200        13,775           224
Wednesday  2014-10-15      403,033,849    1,011,044        13,815           222
Tuesday    2014-10-14      418,613,044    1,014,031        13,777           222
Monday     2014-10-13      409,720,387      991,368        13,683           221
Sunday     2014-10-12      354,215,919      758,446        12,447           221
Saturday   2014-10-11      338,392,643      873,813        12,813           220
Friday     2014-10-10      441,220,954      981,608        13,668           221
Wednesday  2014-10-08      442,036,564    1,004,857        13,735           222
Tuesday    2014-10-07      451,692,579      964,383        13,684           221
Monday     2014-10-06      412,294,591      929,383        13,602           223
Sunday     2014-10-05      326,334,098      732,456        12,411           221
Saturday   2014-10-04      367,895,034      823,581        12,705           221
Friday     2014-10-03      414,109,108      901,896        13,560           222
Thursday   2014-10-02      390,976,131      937,692        13,717           222
Wednesday  2014-10-01      425,497,951      975,143        13,769           222
Tuesday    2014-09-30      463,660,700    1,026,417        13,782           223
Monday     2014-09-29      395,954,691    1,023,389        13,766           223
Sunday     2014-09-28      331,605,440      806,759        12,572           223
Saturday   2014-09-27      370,000,677      892,104        12,866           221
Friday     2014-09-26      414,922,541    1,011,914        13,656           222
Thursday   2014-09-25      497,214,237    1,045,960        13,787           221
Wednesday  2014-09-24      438,804,963    1,047,316        13,833           222
Tuesday    2014-09-23      444,718,416    1,047,928        13,819           222

90-Day

180-Day

Year

ASN Statistics

These charts represent how many ASN's are effected during the period of the graph.

90-Day

180-Day

Year

Country Statistics

These charts represent how many countries are effected during the period of the graph.

90-Day

180-Day

Year

HTTP Hit Statistics

These charts show how many daily hits from Conficker systems that we are seeing during the period of the graphs. While this is not really representative of an infection population, it does show the level of work that the Conficker Working Group must do daily in dealing with the level of events from Conficker.

90-Day

180-Day

Year